新周期下的全球矿业

　　The Global Mining Industry in a New Cycle

　　◎  朱  清

　　当前，百年变局持续演进，世界经济面临增长困境。各国致力于修复疫情“疤痕”、控制通胀，但是现有的技术模式释放动能减弱，投资收益下降，发达国家债务高企，地缘政治危机持续诱发区域冲突，全球产业链供应链体系深度调整，推动矿业产业链供应链调整。科技革命和产业变革出现新机遇，全球矿业发展进入新周期。

　　世界经济进入低速增长通道，能源资源产消贸持续增长但结构分化

　　2023年以来，世界经济增长动力明显不足，总体处于低速增长通道。地缘政治和金融政策渗入到全球制造业，格局演变，产业链供应链风险上升。全球通胀高位回落，大宗商品价格回稳，资本市场表现分化。全球能源资源生产、消费和贸易持续增长，供需结构调整。全球化石能源整体供需双升，大宗固体矿产供需分化明显，钢铁供需双降，供应过剩程度增加；铜供给增速高于需求增速，供需缺口大幅缩小；铝供给增速高于需求增速，供过于求。战略性新兴矿产产量快速增长，锂、钴、镍均供过于求，贸易量下降明显。贵金属供需分化明显，黄金、白银需求冲高后回落，铂金供需双降。黄金需求冲高后回落，供应小幅增长，供大于求；白银供增需降，供需缺口大幅缩小；铂金供需双降，供应过剩程度减小。中国的矿产资源供给和消费显著增长，为全球矿业发展作出新贡献。

　　勘查投入回落，钻探活动减少，但战略性矿产资源储量大幅增加

　　2023年，全球主要固体矿产勘查投入为127.6亿美元，同比下降1.8%，黄金和铜的勘查投入占据主导地位，锂矿的勘查投入快速增长；详查和勘探阶段投入占比较大，草根勘探占比下降。全球固体钻探活动大幅减少，钻探项目和钻孔数同比分别减少23.7%和23.5%。其中，贵金属钻探项目下降，战略性新兴矿产和大宗矿产钻探项目数量上升。固体钻探项目矿种集中度降低，黄金在固体钻探项目中占比下降，但仍居于主导，黄金、白银项目同比分别减少8.3%、1.7%。大宗矿产和战略性新兴矿产钻探项目数呈现上升趋势，同比分别增长1.2%、9.3%。2023年全球能源总体储量保持稳定，战略性新兴矿产新增储量大幅增长，部分大宗矿产储量小幅调整，贵金属储量涨幅较大。

　　矿产品价格、矿业公司利润总体下行，矿业融资下降但并购快速增加

　　2023年，国际矿产品价格总体震荡下行。全球经济疲软、银行风险加剧等因素导致能源矿产品价格总体下行，较2022年均价下降超两成；大宗矿产品价格分化，价格振荡加剧；战略性新兴矿产供强需弱，价格持续下跌，电池级碳酸锂年内价格跌幅超八成。矿业公司股价震荡下行，油气公司股价下滑，净利润下降明显；主要固体矿产公司股价先抑后扬，净利润下降超两成，但总体仍保持高位；战略性新兴矿产公司股价大幅下降，利润同比下降超六成。黄金业务公司净利润和市值持续上涨。全球固体矿业融资有所下降，主要固体矿产融资额度少量减少，大宗固体矿产降幅最大，黄金次之，战略性新兴矿产有所增加，股权融资仍是主要方式。主要固体矿产并购总体回暖但结构分化，贵金属并购火热，大宗固体矿产并购量价齐减，但均聚焦大型项目，战略性新兴矿产并购降温。

　　头部矿业企业总市值相对稳定但结构变化大，矿业产业链竞争加剧

　　2023年，全球50强矿业公司总市值季度波动在4%以内，但是50强矿业公司构成变化较大。铜金价格的增长和新能源矿产价格下跌，诱发相应矿业企业市值变化。全球矿产品震荡分化，大型矿业企业变动明显。中国矿业公司总数增加5.9%，主要聚焦于非金属与煤炭开采行业，总利润下降。新能源矿产资源供应过剩导致矿业公司产业链资本缩减。全球锂电产业链整体需求放缓，动力电池产能出现结构性过剩，头部锂矿企业追求与下游用户深度绑定。全球氢能项目规模正在持续扩大，但实际部署不及预期，总体发展不平衡。矿业ESG挑战和机遇并存，ESG政策标准日趋严格，主要经济体加强ESG投资监管力度，头部矿业企业将ESG标准嵌入企业架构并融入未来发展战略。矿业企业为响应全球减碳趋势，采取了一系列综合性措施推进减碳。

　　各国围绕产业链竞争持续更新战略性矿产政策，双多边矿产联盟持续增加

　　全球能源结构转型进程不断加速，关键矿产在未来能源体系中扮演的角色受到高度关注。2023年，各国政府关注到关键矿产需求快速增加及供应链集中的潜在风险，采取激励和干预措施，通过达成关键矿产政府间战略合作或贸易协议，出台发展关键矿产及供应链的法律法规及政策，推进矿业项目与基础设施协同等方式，促进本国矿产产业链本土化和矿业可持续发展，保障供应链安全。

　　AI找矿探索变革矿产勘查范式，矿业发展新质生产力未来可期

　　新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展，全球各主要经济体持续加大对关键矿产资源开发利用战略布局，矿业开发技术装备成为国际矿业合作博弈中的关键变量，前沿技术领域成为大国竞争的重要战略阵地。全球利用AI技术进行矿产勘查方兴未艾，当前利用AI技术找矿总体还在探索阶段，需突破诸多技术难题。全球勘查开发、资源回收利用等技术装备加速发展，呈高效化、智能化、高精度、低碳化等态势。低品位难选矿技术向绿色化、自动化方向发展。大型化、多力场、自动化与多学科交叉是低品位矿产资源选矿设备的研发重点。全球主要经济体持续加大对矿产资源回收利用的布局，美国、加拿大、日本等矿业发达国家持续加大对关键矿产资源回收利用的投入，大宗和新兴矿产回收利用技术专利数量明显增长。

　　展望未来，全球经济总体进入低速运行通道，制造业增速放缓，矿产资源供应消费虽有所增加，但矿产品价格总体下行，矿业行业利润率下降，地缘政治冲突增加供应链产业链风险。矿业发展和国际金融格局深度交融，在较高通胀、较高利率、更高债务的“三高”背景下，全球经济复苏需要更多动力，潜在金融风险伴随美元降息预期，矿产品存在价格波动风险，战略性新兴矿产开发面临产能出清。

　　地缘政治格局演化持续推动全球矿业结构演变，矿业产业链总体粘性较大。矿业市场经济力量展现韧性，资源民族主义持续冲击矿产资源产权方合法权益，降低矿业可持续发展能力。全球金融公共产品工具化降低主导货币和贸易结算体系公信力，建设多通道可选择的全球矿业贸易平台和交易工具势在必行。

　　新质生产力赋予矿业高质量发展新动能。卫星遥感、大数据、物联网等先进技术将持续催生AI找矿、智能矿山等新产业。数据资产定价将引领全球矿业新基建，矿产资源综合利用水平提升和城市矿产利用，为矿业发展带来新动能。矿业产业深度转型升级需要向全产业链科技创新协同攻坚，实现矿山开发与生态保护的有效协同，培育矿业新发展模式。

　　在人类命运共同体理念的指引下，矿产原产地产业链延伸不可逆转，制造业大国和基建大国凸显竞争优势，将为全球矿业合作持续贡献产业力量。ESG迈向金融化、法治化双轮驱动，矿业减碳渗入到头部矿业企业，矿业治理需要真实的国际传播。各国应加强关键矿产领域协作，共同维护产业链供应链稳定畅通，引导推动矿业节约集约和绿色发展，为世界经济增长贡献力量。

　　The world is undergoing significant changes unseen in a century, and the global economy faces growth challenges. Countries are striving to heal the scars left by the COVID-19 pandemic and control inflation. However, the momentum from existing technological models is weakening, investment returns are declining, debt in developed nations is surging, and geopolitical crises are continuously triggering regional conflicts, leading to a profound adjustment of the global industry and supply chain systems, which in turn drives s adjustments in the industry chain and supply chain of the mining industry. New opportunities are emerging with technological revolutions and industrial transformations, marking the beginning of a new cycle in global mining development.

　　The global economy has entered a low-growth trajectory, with increased production, consumption, and trade of energy and resources despite structural divergence

　　Since 2023, the global economy has experienced a significant lack of growth momentum, remaining in a low-growth trajectory. Geopolitical and financial policies have influenced the evolution of the global manufacturing landscape, leading to increased risks in industry and supply chains. Global inflation has eased from its highs, commodity prices have stabilized, and capital markets have performed divergently. The production, consumption, and trade of Global energy and resources have continued to grow, with adjustments in supply and demand structures. The overall supply and demand for global fossil fuels have both risen, and trade decreased. The supply and demand for bulk solid minerals are clearly differentiated,, and trade increased. Strategic emerging minerals was all facing oversupply, and trade increased.. Precious metals have exhibited a clear supply-demand divergence, and trade decreased. China’s mineral resource supply and consumption have grown significantly, contributing positively to global mining development.

　　While exploration investments and drilling activity have declined, strategic mineral reserves have increased substantially

　　In 2023, global exploration investment for major solid minerals amounted to USD12.76 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year. Exploration for gold and copper dominated, while investment in lithium exploration grew rapidly. Drilling activities for solid minerals decreased significantly. The drilling number of precious metals drilling projects declined, while emerging minerals and bulk commodities increased. In 2023, global energy mineral reserves saw a slight increase overall, with significant growth in strategic emerging mineral and precious metals reserves and minor adjustments in some bulk mineral reserves.

　　While mineral prices and the profits of mining companies have generally fallen, mining financing has reduced, but M&A activities have rapidly increased

　　In 2023, international mineral product prices generally experienced a downward trend. The prices of energy and mineral products fell on the whole, with the average price down by more than 20% year-on-year. The price oscillation of bulk mineral products is intensified. The price of strategic emerging minerals continues to fall.The stock prices of mining companies had a volatile decline. The share prices of major oil and gas companies fell, the share prices of bulk solid mineral companies fell first and then rose, and the share prices of strategic emerging mineral companies fell sharply.Global solid mineral financing saw a decline. Bulk solid minerals saw the largest declines, followed by gold, while strategic emerging minerals saw some increases. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in major solid minerals showed a general recovery but with structural divergence. Precious metals M&A were particularly active, while bulk solid minerals decreased in both volume and value. Strategic emerging mineral M&A activities cooled down.

　　The total market value of leading mining companies has remained relatively stable, yet structural changes have been significant and competition within the mining industrial chain has intensified

　　In 2023, the total market value of the world’s top 50 mining companies fluctuated slightly, but the composition significantly changed. The number of Chinese mining companies increased by 5.9%, mainly focusing on non-metallic and coal mining industries. An oversupply of new energy mineral resources led to a reduction in capital across the mining industry chain. Top lithium mining companies pursued deeper integration with downstream users. Hydrogen energy projects continued to expand in scale, but actual deployment fell short of expectations, leading to uneven overall development. The mining industry faced both challenges and opportunities in terms of ESG standards. ESG policies and standards are becoming increasingly stringent, with major economies strengthening ESG investment regulations. Leading mining companies have embedded ESG standards into their corporate structures and integrated them into their future development strategies. In response to the global trend toward carbon reduction, mining companies have implemented a series of comprehensive measures to promote decarbonization.

　　Countries continuously update strategic mineral policies in response to industry chain competition, with more bilateral and multilateral mineral alliances emerging

　　In 2023, governments around the world recognized the potential risks associated with the rapid increase in demand for critical minerals and concentrated supply chains. In response, they implemented various incentive and intervention measures, including forming strategic intergovernmental cooperation or trade agreements on critical minerals, enacting laws and policies to develop critical mineral resources and supply chains, and promoting the coordination of mining projects with infrastructure development. These efforts aim to build localized mineral industry chains, ensure sustainable mining practices, and secure supply chain safety.

　　AI is driving a paradigm shift in mineral exploration, offering promising prospects for new quality productive forces in the mining industry

　　Mining technology and equipment have become critical variables in international mining cooperation and competition, and frontier technological fields have emerged as strategic battlegrounds for major powers. Although AI-driven mineral exploration is still in the exploratory stage and faces numerous technical challenges, the rapid development of technical equipment for global exploration, R&D, resource recycling and utilization, and other aspects is leading to more efficient, intelligent, high-precision, and low-carbon solutions. Low-grade and hard-to-process ore beneficiation technologies are evolving toward greener and more automated processes, with the development of large-scale, multi-field, automated, and interdisciplinary beneficiation equipment being a key focus for low-grade mineral resources. Major global economies are also intensifying efforts in mineral resource recycling and utilization. Countries with well-developed mineral sectors, such as the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan, are significantly increasing investments in the recycling and utilization of critical minerals, resulting in a noticeable increase in patents related to the recycling of both bulk and emerging minerals.

　　Looking to the future, the global economy is expected to enter a low-growth trajectory, with manufacturing growth slowing down. While the supply and consumption of mineral resources may increase, overall mineral product prices are likely to decline, leading to reduced profitability in the mining sector. Mining development and international financial structure are deeply integrated, under the background of higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher debt, global economic recovery needs more impetus, potential financial risks are accompanied by US dollar interest rate cut expectations, mineral products have price volatility risks, and strategic emerging mineral development faces capacity clearance.

　　Geopolitical conflicts are likely to increase risks to the supply chain and industry chain. The ongoing evolution of the geopolitical landscape will continue to drive changes in the global mining structure, with the mining industry chain exhibiting considerable resilience. The economic forces in the mining market demonstrate signs of resilience. However, resource nationalism continues to challenge the legitimate rights and interests of mineral resource owners, undermining the sustainability of the mining industry. The instrumentalization of global financial public goods has reduced the credibility of the dominant currency and trade settlement system, and it is imperative to build a multi-channel alternative global mining trade platform and trading tools.

　　New quality productive forces are driving high-quality development in mining. Advanced technologies such as satellite remote sensing, big data, and the Internet of Things will continue to foster new industries like AI-driven mineral exploration and intelligent mining. The valuation of data assets is expected to lead the way in new global mining infrastructure, enhancing the comprehensive utilization of mineral resources and urban mining, which will provide new momentum for the industry’s development. The deep transformation and upgrading of the mining industry needs to make concerted efforts in scientific and technological innovation of the whole industrial chain, achieve effective coordination between mine development and ecological protection, and cultivate a new development model of the mining industry.

　　Guided by the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, we will see an inevitable extension of industry chains in mineral-producing regions, with manufacturing and infrastructure powerhouses highlighting competitive advantages. These countries will continue to contribute to global mining cooperation. Countries should strengthen collaboration in critical mineral sectors to jointly maintain stable and smooth industry and supply chains, and to guide and promote resource-saving, intensive, and green development in mining, thereby contributing to global economic growth.